Sunday, February 4, 2018

The future of work

Most people today identify themselves by their work.  We say, “I am a teacher”, or “I am an engineer”.  It is part of our identity in western culture.  In most of my conversations with individuals about a future without the need for work, past their concerns to have their basic needs met, they question the wisdom of eliminating their obligation to work in society.  Most of us believe that work is the only way we can fully contribute to society.

I usually answer: “Do you think raising a child is a significant social contribution?  How about volunteering time for a good cause?”  The point I’m trying to make is that there are many ways to participate and bring value to society.  When we contribute through actions we really care about and enjoy, we don’t care if we get paid or not.  Other examples of free social contributions are programmers working on open source software or people that donate or pledge on systems like Patreon, Kickstarter or donate money to causes.  These contributions lead to further social, service or product development without which some projects, artists and actions could not be pursued.
Thus, being paid for a job is not a reason to live.  We can still be paid for work we do… that doesn’t need to change.  But there should be no obligation to do so.

According to a study made by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in 2017, 38% of today’s American jobs will be automated by 2030[1].  In 2013, Oxford University has calculated that about 47 percent[2] of total US employment was at risk due to artificial intelligence and robotics.  That was almost 5 years ago.  According to American census data (2017),70% of all American jobs today are in transportation, manufacturing and services.  Most of those could be partially or fully automated within the next 10 years of we put our minds to it.  We could accelerate the deployment of AI and automation technologies to free human beings from the absolute need to be involved in essential work.  With a smaller percentage of people needed to work to provide basic needs to all members of a nation, those of us who are not required to keep automated systems running, could use our passion and skill to work in non-essential capacities and fill in the gaps that automation cannot until automation catches up.

Human beings have a need to feel part of society[3].  It is embedded into our biology, hence why we feel the urge to contribute in the first place.  In our ideal future we need to change how we define our purpose to better align it with the basic truth:  we want to contribute positively to society by doing what we like to do.

This contribution would be different for every individual, but all contributions add value.  Worried that we don’t cover all the bases to keep our society operate smoothly?  That’s what robotics and AI are for.  We should use them to cover the bases and ensure society runs smoothly as much as possible.   
Innovators and entrepreneurs like myself are trained and enjoy the challenge of finding solutions to problems.  As a society, we can choose to engineer a world where every individual can do what they want.   We still need to monitor and regulate population’s actions to ensure we act according to some accepted social rules of conduct.  Not something unusual or different than what we’re currently doing now with our legislative and judiciary systems.

Social contributors can still be organized in companies to achieve specific goals, just like we’re organized today, with some changes described in the next sections.  Corporations, cooperatives, creative commons and other collaborative systems, for profit or not, are still valid.

We wouldn’t need to reinvent the wheel.  All we really need to do here is give people the basics and many adults will choose of their own free will to find a job or another occupation. The difference is, as seen in UBI pilots of the past[4], the population will spend more time in education, will wait a longer time for the job they will be really interested in or they will start their own innovative exciting businesses.

Some will be passionate parents and strictly focus on that for a while because that’s where their minds and hearts are.  Those parents will produce very well adjusted and socially adept children which will be much better equipped at contributing to society themselves later.

Others will go back to school in fields of interest and then go back to society better educated, happier and more capable.

Live long and prosper
Here is something else to consider:  our next generations could live long, long lives.  It is even foreseeable that we will have the opportunity to live forever.  Several research teams in the US and elsewhere have developed clinically proven treatments to make human lives healthier and longer[5].  We’ve effectively started working on ways to fix with our body’s natural tendencies to deteriorate with age using multiple strategies such as gene editing, stem cells and medicine.  There are no one-treatment-does-all solutions.  Aging is in fact caused by seven very specific biological processes[6].  Modern researchers have already figured out ways to stop and reverse the damages time and use has done to some of those systems. 

The first treatments which should be going to market in the next five years or so should extend the recipient’s lives by a few healthy years, which is good but not enough to really celebrate[7],[8].  However, if this gives human beings a few more years of life, on average, this is additional time used to improve on the treatment and find other treatments that deal with one of the seven aging-problematic categories, thus extending our lives further.  This duel between aging and treatments against aging can occur for a while and depending on research success, deployment of treatments to the public and individual health, some people in our youngest generations and the generations following could live healthy for hundreds of years.  Aubrey de Grey, Chief Science Officer at the SENS Research Foundation calls this tug-of-war Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV).  He also told me in an interview the estimated timeline to successfully achieve LEV:

“If you’re asking how soon we will get to longevity escape velocity, I think it’s probably 20 years.  I think the most difficult treatments that we’re talking about are probably a good 10 years away from clinical trial, which means conservatively we should be talking in terms of about 20 years before they actually arrive.”
We really need to consider this as part of our plans.  Not only will AI and other technologies make human work to produce humanity’s basic needs illogical, but humans will be living much longer very soon.  Our economy has difficulty with the average age of death being 80 years old.  People are living much longer than before, and that average will only increase in the next few years.  We are having trouble with the fact that people need to work more than 40 years to sustain our economy.  Are we expected to be forced to work for… say 300 years, just to support a work-free end of life?

That’s just ridiculous. All the more reason to create a new social paradigm and a new economy that supports a healthy population that will live extremely long healthy lives.

Ensuring everyone can support themselves and their families with the basics for the full duration of their lives is an important foundation to our ideal future.

Decentralization and entrepreneurship
I’ve mentioned several times already the importance of innovators such as entrepreneurs in this plan.  Honestly, all the entrepreneurs I know, don’t start new businesses to get rich.  They do it because they frankly can’t do otherwise.  It is a burning passion that allows us to go through incredibly uncomfortable and insecure social positions to complete projects dear to us.  We do it because we want to see our project succeed.  We want to fix problems in we see in the world and we want to make improvements in the world.  Some of us want to be the first to do something that has never been done. 

With the massive amounts of information on the Internet and very advanced software allowing people, AI and information to collide and work together these days, it’s even easier to be an entrepreneur or inventor.  We can develop ideas on our own with limited financial resources.  It is often enough to create a minimal viable product and to test it out to see if it works in the market and if people like it.

It is a glorious time.  Innovators are creating solutions to problems that traditionally required government control or large amounts of funds from companies or controlling benefactors.  Families today can generate their own power (solar panels), make their own drinking water (wells, MOF water extraction technology, etc.) and eliminate their own waste/recycling (this needs a bit more development, but we have solutions for apartment buildings and bathroom blocks already available[9]).

I believe we’ll see a transition from government-controlled energy grids, water purification systems and waste disposal/recycling systems to privately owned systems. This transition is already happening today, and it is a good thing.  Government can take care of regulations to ensure new products sold by businesses won’t be a danger to health or the environment, and just let the private sector create better and better options for the population to choose from.  Offer and demand will balance there rest out.

Decentralization of these services means the same as consumers buying into just any other traditional product today.   That’s great because the bigger the government, the less efficient it is.  Letting us create new products through entrepreneurship and choose the products and services we desire keeps the economy flowing nicely and efficiently.

We can also anticipate more and more families will be using 3D printing technologies or the like to make their own goods at home from raw materials found around the house.  Some of the raw materials could even be what we consider waste or recyclables today.  When you use something up, you need to dispose of, soon, it will eventually become possible to decompose this item at home and then “print” a new one from the components afresh using power pulled from your own personal solar power grid.  Families will be able to control their own needs this way.  Current 3D printers are not efficient enough to be interesting for end users just yet, unless you are producing low quality prototypes, but the technology is rapidly becoming more interesting.  We’re also developing some very neat nanotechnologies that could be used to produce goods.  Not to mention smaller home robots powered by AI. 

The Internet, an essential basic and essential tool for the future of humanity, needs to be updated somewhat as well.  Currently, only a handful of companies control Internet infrastructures.  I believe this needs to change to ensure the Internet is controlled by the whole of humanity and not by central entities that may choose to deprive some of information while others are starved of it.  Some companies, like Substratum.net are trying out a peer-to-peer distributed approach to give individuals Internet access, which is very cool.  Other companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX have plans to deploy a satellite constellation with ground receivers that will cover the whole planet and thus provide Internet to every individual with access.  The current Internet is old and uses very inefficient communication pathways that could be eliminated through entrepreneur innovation.  Again, offer and demand means people will choose what type of Internet they really want to use and which company they prefer.  It is fair and allows for further iterative innovation down the road.

Finally, we must consider the decentralisation of money.  I’m dedicating a whole section on this subject later in this book since it deserves a lot more attention to fully explain.  However, for the discussion right now the important thing to understand is that we would no longer need fiat currencies controlled by government.  We would still need money to trade for products and services and to participate in the offer and demand market.  Money should be used to acquire goods beyond those required to satisfy basic needs (UBI money is provided for free to ensure that’s covered).  In our global economy, the appearance of blockchain and other cryptographic algorithms like hashgraphs, means we no longer need central authorities that control the value of money and security.  Money systems can be collectively owned by all and thus by none.  It needs to be a way to securely trade for against value in a fair way with no single entity able to dictate fees, changes of values without the consensus of the whole network. 

Ultimately, what we want is full control of our own freedoms, choices, creativity, time and families and create or adapt towards a governance system that takes care of us all without limiting our freedoms and choices.



[1] Will robots steal our jobs? The potential impact of automation on the UK and other major economies.  PricewaterhouseCoopers (March 2017) - https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/ukeo/pwcukeo-section-4-automation-march-2017-v2.pdf
[2] Frey, C. B and Osborne, M. A.  (September 2013).  The future of employment:  how susceptible are jobs to computerization? - https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
[3] Gregg Henriques Ph.D. (2012). Relational Value.  - https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/theory-knowledge/201206/relational-value
[4] Ben Chapman (June 2017).  Finnish citizens given universal basic income report lower stress levels and greater incentive to work.  - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/finland-universal-basic-income-lower-stress-better-motivation-work-wages-salary-a7800741.html
[5] Fergus Walsh (December 2017).  How long could we live? - http://www.bbc.com/news/health-42404083
[6] A reimagined research strategy for aging.  SENS Research Foundation. - http://www.sens.org/research/introduction-to-sens-research
[7] Michael Irving (March 2017).  DNA-repairing drug could fight aging and radiation damage.  - https://newatlas.com/dna-repairing-drug-nmn/48584/?utm_source=Gizmag+Subscribers&utm_campaign=99a1f64d61-UA-2235360-4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-99a1f64d61-92296889
[8] Houston Methodist (July 2017).  Researchers develop technology to make aged cells younger.  - https://m.medicalxpress.com/news/2017-07-technology-aged-cells-younger.html
[9] NYC high-rise reuse proves decentralized system works. Michael Zavoda of Water & Wastewater International   - http://www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/print/volume-21/issue-1/features/nyc-high-rise-reuse-proves-decentralized-system-works.html

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